Let me first tell you I have a EUR/CAD short position from earlier this week (near 1.4800) so I am in essence “talking my book.” However, the development by the end of the week was unexpected, but also a massive development technically. I felt I must tell you about it, even if you didn’t pick up on my cues from my tweet last week that it was already on my radar.

The EUR/CAD had tested the 20+ year trend line last week, and you can see that chart here:

1-22-16EURCAD1

You may have to check a couple different broker feeds to get those longer term values, but it is the same value I see at my MBT Desktop Chart as well:

1-22-16EURCAD3

If you take a closer look, what you will notice is the bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart:

1-22-16EURCAD2

It is still early in the session, so anything can happen for the rest of the day and before the market closes. However, it would engulf even if we get 100+ pip rally. Also note we had a false breakout (noted red circles) above 1.5530 for this last week that will only add fuel to the fire. A close today back above 1.5466 would invalidate the engulfing pattern.

 

Blake Morrow

Chief Currency Strategist, Wizetrade

 

Disclaimer, I am short the EUR/CAD and am looking for an exit of position in the coming week.

 

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As much as it pains me to blog this (I am short some CAD from earlier this week) but I have to point out the CAD looks as if it has more downside before we can see a legitimate bounce. Here is what the CAD futures contract shows us:

1-13-166C

Downside trend line, 261% extension and AB=CD extension all comes in around the same spot around the .6800 level.

Unfortunately, my finger is already a little smelly as I have been trying to “pick the bottom.”

 

Blake Morrow

Chief Currency Strategist, Wizetrade

 

Disclaimer: I am currently long some CAD currency

 

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Flag patterns are the most common continuation patterns, and tend to be good ones to follow to identify a strong directional trend. Today, the Canadian economy posted a weaker than expected GDP number, which may be the catalyst that drives this pair into a technical breakout today.

Here is the daily chart of the USD/CAD:

6-30-15USDCAD

The weekly chart is telling us what the possible ramifications of a weekly breakout may be:

6-30-15USDCAD1

A move beyond a 1.4000 exchange rate could be possible into 2016 if crude oil continues to sustain very weak prices (which would continue to weigh on the Canadian economy) and the FOMC stubbornly maintains a hawkish bias towards a rate hike later this year.

 

Blake Morrow

Chief Currency Strategist, Wizetrade

 

Disclaimer: I did enter a long USD/CAD position (near current prices) today and am looking to continue to build a long position in the coming weeks

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6-20-14EURCAD

 

The EUR/CAD has now broke below its 200 day SMA (was previously ‘hugging’) following a stronger read on CPI and Retail Sales this morning in Canada. Also, the H&S daily pattern is in play, which also targets levels 400 pips below current prices. Next meaningful support is near 1.4500 where the daily trend line is in play.

 

Blake Morrow

Chief Currency Strategist, Wizetrade

Disclaimer: I shorted the EUR/CAD following today’s data releases

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5-22-14AUDCAD

 

After a near perfect “Gartley” pattern, the AUD/CAD is now in process of completing a Head and Shoulder’s pattern which is commonly seen as a reversal pattern after a strong uptrend. Current target is about .9925

Blake Morrow

Chief Currency Strategist, Wizetrade

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