The EUR/GBP is breaking a confluence of a 61.8% retracement of the 2012 low to 2013 high, and also a weekly trend line from the last 7 years. Fundamentally, the trade makes sense as the ECB may be proactive to ease monetary policy the next month, and the BOE is expected to raise rates sometime next year.
Blake Morrow
Chief Currency Strategist, Wizetrade
Disclaimer: I am short the EUR/GBP near current levels.
The E-mini futures is testing the 50 DMA currenty. Price was moving higher (upper yellow trend line) and hitting higher highs, but bigger issue for bulls currently is as price was moving higher, RSI (below) was divergent and now is breaking down.
If the futures close below the 50 day SMA, that could be a bearish event given that usually the last month we have tested and bounce back above.
Blake Morrow
Chief Currency Strategist, Wizetrade
I AM ADDING THE CHART BELOW IN RESPONSE TO THE COMMENTS FROM ANON, the smart guy.
GBP/USD has a Head and Shoulders pattern that targets the 1.6660 level, which is horizontal support and a 61.8 Fibonacci retracement. This is a bearish breakdown from multi year highs.
Blake Morrow
Chief Currency Strategist, Wizetrade
Disclaimer: I have been short the GBP/USD since the ECB meeting on Thursday, May 8th.
One of last week’s EDGE Chart was the USD/CHF, which now that it is breaking higher is posting a move above the downtrend line and out of the descending wedge. This formation is bullish by design, and also has a RSI that is breaking a down trend line.
Also notice the 38% retracement on the weekly chart which we currently trade back above at the .8660 level.
Blake Morrow
Chief Currency Strategist, Wizetrade
Disclaimer, I have been long the USD/CHF since last Thusday
Ascending wedge – some call it a “rising wedge” but it is a reversal pattern ONCE the lower trend line is broken. Considering we are near the “apex” of this wedge, a downside breakout % is higher in the near term.
Blake Morrow
Chief Currency Strategist, Wizetrade
Disclaimer: I did short the pair today off the “upper trend line” and do plan on staying short for the coming days – weeks.
“don’t forget about me!” and the trend line(s) we approach. For those of you keen on correlations, you know how a rally in the JPY could affect the SPX and/or the bond market (bonds may have been leading since late last week).
Blake Morrow
Chief Currency Strategist, Wizetrade
Disclaimer, I started nibbling at some JPY today and may add over the next 1-2 days if a breakout occurs.
The EUR/NZD stopped falling back in March and consolidated around the 61.8 Fib level. In recent weeks the EUR/NZD has been moving higher and is no approaching a recent breakdown point and down trend line. A breakout above 1.6300 would be a very bullish event for the pair.
Blake Morrow
Chief Currency Strategist, Wizetrade
Disclaimer: I have been long the pair for several weeks.
This EDGE chart is simple. There is a massive breakout looming in the EUR/JPY. It’s a triangle in a bullish trend. Most would “think” it breaks higher, but the problem is that is should have broke higher weeks ago with equities surging higher. Below 140.00 and a breakdown could be severe. Above 142.50 and the uptrend continues.
Blake Morrow
Chief Currency Strategist, Wizetrade
After surging to the upper end of it’s daily/weekly channel and completing a 261% extension, the NZD/CAD is forming a bearish wedge on the daily and break of .9400 on a daily close could lead to a substantial sell off in the coming week(s).
Blake Morrow
Chief Currency Strategist, Wizetrade
GBP/USD double top, targeting just above 1.6700. Trend line on daily chart comes in just below at 1.6650 (by the time it gets there)
Blake Morrow
Chief Currency Strategist, Wizetrade
Disclaimer: I just shorted the pair earlier today with targets listed above
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